With long-term analysis from Capitalist Exploits. Neither section constitutes investment advice. CI Mavericks holds active positions in the asset classes discussed.
Part One — The Short-Term View
Post-FOMC, Quad Witching, and a Long Weekend
This week has delivered exactly the kind of compressed, multi-factor calendar that creates volatility without necessarily changing direction. The Federal Open Market Committee has delivered its statement. Today is quad witching — the simultaneous expiry of stock index futures, stock index options, single-stock futures, and single-stock options. Tomorrow is a public holiday for Juneteenth. The result is a market environment where short-term moves carry limited signal value, but positioning before a long weekend carries meaningful risk.
The pattern we are watching across precious metals is a classic post-FOMC footprint. In the lead-up to FOMC statements, metals tend to rally through Monday and Tuesday of the statement week. They often sell off on Wednesday and then recover sharply Thursday and Friday. Gold broke out to $4,380 earlier in the week before giving back gains as the dollar ripped higher following the statement.
WTI Crude Oil: Testing Support Near $74–75
WTI crude is stabilizing in the $74–75 per barrel range. Three separate attempts to push price below the 100- and 200-day moving average confluences have all failed to generate sustained follow-through. Yesterday’s session produced one of the more dramatic five-minute sequences we have seen: price spiked to just under $80 per barrel, held there for less than a minute, then sold off $5 in the following sessions. This kind of violent rejection at round-number resistance tells you where the near-term supply overhang sits.
The macro backdrop has shifted. The US-Iran deal has generated significant positive sentiment in energy markets — and that sentiment appears largely priced in. Historical data shows oil positive approximately 80% of the time during this specific calendar period in mid-to-late June. Ten-year and fifteen-year seasonal data both support a price recovery toward $80–84 through the end of the month.
Gold: Classic Playbook, Two Credible Paths
Gold has delivered the setup we outlined going into FOMC week. Following the statement, the dollar surged back above swing highs, applying pressure to metals. Today, on quad witching, gold is rolling over from the 21-day moving average — precisely the bearish scenario: a three-day pre-FOMC rally creating a bull trap, followed by a reversal toward prior swing lows. The lower Keltner Channel on gold currently sits near $4,000 per ounce.
The alternative scenario is equally credible: gold consolidates here, forms a right shoulder in a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, and resumes the uptrend. A break back above the current swing high with momentum would open the path toward the uni-pivot and potentially higher. Seasonal data for an election year is constructive for gold from late June through August. We have five trades active. Stops are protecting capital.
Part Two — The Long-Term View
A Structural Rotation Fifteen Years in the Making
Brazil sits on the world’s largest shared aquifer. It irrigates the vast majority of its agriculture through rainfall rather than groundwater pumping — a meaningful contrast to California and the Punjab, where agricultural systems are drawing down non-renewable groundwater reserves at unsustainable rates. It holds significant reserves of graphite, lithium, and other critical minerals. Its energy complex is approximately 87% domestic. And Brazil sits outside the active conflict zones increasingly constraining the movement of goods to Western markets. The relative value chart of Brazil versus the S&P 500 is at a level that has historically preceded significant multi-year outperformance.
Market Concentration: The Signal in the Chart
The concentration of the S&P 500 in its top holdings is now approaching levels with no historical precedent. The so-called Magnificent Seven currently represents approximately 43% of the index by weight. If the anticipated SpaceX IPO proceeds at its rumored $1.75 trillion valuation and enters index calculations, that figure could approach 45% before year-end. SpaceX is priced at 93 times revenue. It has no earnings. Its annual cash burn requires approximately $3 billion of capital to sustain. This is the kind of IPO that sophisticated investors have historically associated with the top of speculative cycles.
Oil Services: The Most Unloved Sector in a Generation
The ratio of oil and gas service stocks to the average stock in the S&P 500 has fallen approximately 90% over the past fifteen years. To return to parity with the average S&P 500 company, oil service stocks would need to increase nine times from current levels — assuming the S&P 500 itself goes nowhere. The upside case does not require oil at $200. It requires only that the capex cycle large E&P companies are openly discussing in their earnings calls actually proceeds.