This is our fourth dispatch from Dubai since the Gulf conflict began.
Today we add two new voices: Anna Amica, CEO of Ethos Energy, who manages 30,000 megawatts of power generation across the Gulf — and a CI Mavericks contact who landed at Dubai International Airport this week.
30,000 Megawatts in a War Zone: The CEO’s View
Anna Amica manages it from a CEO chair — roughly 30,000 megawatts under contract, 75 legal entities, 13 business lines.
“It has been very intense since the war started. We had to evacuate a number of people. All of that takes a tremendous amount of logistics and coordination.” — Anna Amica, CEO, Ethos Energy
But people adapted. Leaders who evacuated came back. Operations continued.
The Airport Test: Boots on the Ground
One of our contacts landed at Dubai International this week. The airport was full. Business as usual.
The UAE’s Case: Strong — But We’re Not Just Taking Their Word
Dubai approved an AED 1 billion incentive package in March 2026. But we’re not here to repeat government talking points. We have capital deployed here. We need the truth — not the brochure.
The Market View: Relief Rally or Real Recovery?
Multiple analysts frame this as a relief rally, not a recovery. The underlying pressures on energy pricing, shipping, and corporate payment discipline have not resolved.
What We’re Watching
Shipping through Hormuz. Anna’s team experienced direct disruptions.
Corporate payment discipline. When businesses pay slower, the impact has moved into the real economy.
Tourism and aviation. Our contact’s airport observation is encouraging but needs sustained throughput.
Non-oil GDP growth. If it holds through Q2 2026, it validates the structural case.
Ceasefire durability. Everything hinges on whether it holds.
The CI Mavericks Takeaway
We’re not reducing our exposure. We’re not adding aggressively either. We’re doing what we always do: staying close to the ground and making decisions based on what we see — not what we read.